Masonry Magazine August 1969 Page. 16
Washington Wire
(Continued from page 15)
Prices here have been nudged up as a result of metals such as steel, aluminum, and lead. Those hikes account for recent rises in the key industrial-wholesale index. They do not, in themselves, argue that business here will continue to boom.
It may take a wave of strikes in 1970 to brake the wage-price jumps. That is what some government economic forecasters are currently predicting. Profit margins will be squeezed drastically, if the big unions are granted those 8% and 10% wage increases that so many are certain to be pushing for. With capacity rising from large expansion programs, and with demand easing, it will be harder to recoup their higher costs through increases in prices.
Thus, many companies may be forced to say that they simply can't meet those large wage demands. With inventories so likely to be high when negotiating time rolls around again, much of industry will be in shape to withstand walk-outs.
Administration officials are gradually turning to "jawboning" industry to get it to go slow on price and interest-rate hikes and borrowing, too. The Nixon men are doing so reluctantly. They don't believe in intervening directly in business decision-making. In fact, they had expressly rejected the Kennedy-Johnson use of guidelines and persuasion as useless and harmful.
But they have been frustrated by lack of progress against inflation. So they are tempted to try to dissuade companies that may be on the verge of hiking-and leading the way to a new round of increases in an industry. Treasury Secretary Kennedy has asked banks not to raise lending rates again.
Note the new tactic that black labor used in the Charleston hospital strike. The strikers did more than picket. They demonstrated through the town, inhibiting normal business activity. The pressure, through lost sales struck the entire community. Civic leaders urged a settlement to safeguard tourism and other industry. The tactic may be used in other small cities.
Don't expect to see an easier labor market for skilled workers, once the business slowdown really develops. That's the judgment of some of the country's leading manpower experts. For one thing, they don't expect the unemployment figures to zoom beyond, say 412% or 5% unless a bad recession develops. For another, employers will try to eliminate overtime, in gearing production to reduction in demand, before letting any trained operators go.
Many companies will keep in mind the difficulties met in recruiting skilled workers. They won't want to repeat the effort, if they can help it. Hoarding of labor is common in mild slowdowns. It ends only after things get very tough.
After the moon landing what priorities will President Nixon assign to new space exploration versus vast domestic needs. This Administration is not going to abandon interplanetary research. Work on travel to Mars will be conducted. But the chances are that space outlays will not be beefed up. They will not have a claim on the extra revenue from peace and prosperity.
Rather, Nixon seems likely to turn his attention to all the problems of the cities education, housing, reform of the welfare system, and helping state and local governments in building waterworks, rapid transit, etc. Some Federal funds will be granted for specific purposes, but starting soon-a lot of revenue will be shared, used as localities see fit.
A more vigorous, activist Interstate Commerce Commission should result from a sweeping reorganization that has just been shown by the White House. The blueprint calls for allowing the President to name a permanent Chairman, to encourage quicker decision-making and the development of new policies. It is hoped the carriers will be helped, in time, to greater efficiency.
It's clear now who are the most influential men in Nixon's Cabinet-and in his Administration after his first six months in the White House. Defense Secretary Laird is the leader in foreign as well as military policy. Adviser Kissinger analyzes and shows alternatives; Laird helps with choices. Attorney General Mitchell calls the signals on many of the domestic programs, such as school desegregation. He is the chief GOP political strategist, too.
Significantly, both of these men incline toward the right of center. Their coloration helps explain why relatively more of Nixon's decisions have favored the conservatives.
Senator Mike Mansfield is now becoming top Democrat in Washington. He hasn't sought the job. Essentially, the Majority Leader is a mild man. But, with Nixon in the White House, there's a vacuum on the Democratic side. Leadership in the House is weak. There is no one else to set party policy, especially now that Ted Kennedy has gone into at least temporary retirement.
So Mansfield is now forging party positions on key issues of the day-positions with which the Democrats hope to keep control of Congress in 1970. The kid gloves are off. The Senate Leader is revealed through his fight on the surtax-as a tough battler. With organization and leadership, the Democrats may yet put up a good tussle in November of '70.
Construction expenditures in the United States will exceed $90 billion this, with sharply accelerating costs responsible for most of the 6.8 percent gain over 1968 levels, according to the annual mid-year industry outlook prepared by Johns-Manville. Exclusive of these cost increases, construction expenditures will remain at about the same level as in 1968, rather than reflecting at an anticipated four percent rise.
masonry August, 1969