Masonry Magazine January 1973 Page.26
Directly Behind Directly Ahead
By KENNETH S. DASH
The brick industry, from manufacturers to dealers to contractors to bricklayers, are all participating in what will be known as the best year in the history of the modern brick industry. Why? Lots of reasons. Most of them are grounded in either shortages or overages of some kind.
First, there was the housing shortage. One and one-half million housing starts went to two million then to nearly two million four hundred thousand before sharply tapering off several months ago.
Secondly, there was a severe lumber shortage. Builders all over the country previously wed to lumber found themselves courting brick and aluminum.
But there were overages which directly and positively affected the industry. Money was plentiful. Only ten months ago, interest rates were tantalizingly low (compared to today) and even the smallest savings and loan association was quoting generous and lengthy mortgage terms.
The brick industry also funneled more money into national advertising and promotion than any year in its history. Manufacturers, dealers, contractors and bricklayers used their associations' promotional clout and the brickwagon really started rolling. To meet the expected building boom, brick manufacturers geared up production to some nine billion units and sold them all.
But what's happened since the summer?
Housing starts have fallen below the two million level and are still tumbling down. Lumber, due to (among other reasons) the housing slowdown, has made a substantial recovery. And money is simply not available.
So what's directly ahead?
For one thing, we should realize that the projected housing starts in 1974 of one million five hundred thousand to one million nine hundred thousand will rank third or fourth on the all-time list. Housing is not about to fall off the edge of the table.
Next, the top economists all agree that we should expect a strong non-residential market for the next six to eight months. This should be followed by an easing of interest rates and a rebounding by both the housing and institutional markets.
Finally, the brick industry has a solid promotional and advertising base which has been several years in the making. National promotional associations such as the Brick Institute of America and the International Masonry Institute have their marketing machinery in gear and will monitor all markets which directly or indirectly affect our industry.
No one can accurately judge what the bottom line will be in 1974 at this time. But the industry, by continuing to promote to the marketplace, whatever that may be, will be taking a major step in determining its own destiny.
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