Masonry Magazine June 1973 Page. 37
The Second Half
Versus the Facts
By KENNETH S. DASH
Director of Marketing Promotion
Brick Institute of America
While the "doomsters" may not be exactly crowding the sidewalks, people in the building industry are beginning to take a concerned look at current and forecasted events which should shape the second half of 1973. Figures just released show that housing starts have fallen for the third consecutive month as compared with 1972 figures. Mortgage interest rates are still increasing with cautious but yet undaunted regularity. And the U.S. brick industry has precious little inventory as we turn into the second half of the year. On the face of it, the arithmetic looks rather negative. That is, unless you know the facts, because they tell another story.
FACT: Housing starts have fallen slightly and the year may close with a 10% drop from the 1972 levels. But the 1972 housing record is exactly that a record! Over 2.3 million starts! A 10% decline still places housing starts well over the 2 million mark- a whopping 50% increase over just a few short years ago and possibly the second highest level of starts in all time. The punchline is that there will be enough housing starts in 1973 to keep everybody busy 8 days a week.
FACT: Interest rates are high but so are loans and terms. Nationally, the 95% loan was just emerging into prominence 18 months ago. Today, it is an important factor in new home loans. Twenty and twenty-five-year loans, so prominent in past years, have given way to the 30-year loan and even longer loans may be on the horizon for the future. The fact is that lower downpayments and longer pay-out periods have substantially, if not totally, negated the modest increase in monthly mortgage payments attributed to a higher mortgage interest rate.
FACT: The U.S. brick industry is in the process of adding 1 BILLION BRICK capacity to current production and most of these new units will be on the market THIS YEAR.
And, lest we forget, there are two other items of particular interest.
First, in the lumber industry there are a myriad of problems. Lumber is in trouble and things may get worse in the stretch run of 1973 before they get better. Builders once wed to lumber are now seeking alternatives. Many items in the house which had been executed in wood since time immemorial are now going to other materials. With a billion more units in circulation, brick becomes the No. 1 alternative for builders whose penchant for wood has waned.
Finally, we have the age of consumerism. It has arrived. People want better quality not cheaper products. And better quality means clay brick, not aluminum, hardboard or wood siding. Consumerism starts with quality appliances, cabinets, flooring, windows, and continues in and around the house to the actual exterior building unit itself-brick. No excuses and no substitutions, please.
In closing, the success of the brick industry in the last half of 1973 will, in part, be based upon earlier decisions to increase production and to continue this trend through 1974 to better serve the construction industry and the public with high quality products. While housing starts, mortgage interest rates and competition play important roles and will affect us to some degree, the brick industry, with its own actions, is uniquely capable of meeting the challenge that is squarely before us as we turn into the last half of 1973.
Texas Masonry Association
Honors Cedric Willson
"This is your life, Cedric Willson!" So spoke master of ceremonies Corky Moss to a surprised Willson during the final banquet of the recent annual meeting of the Texas Concrete Masonry Association in Houston.
Members and guests alike had an opportunity to review, laugh and cherish the life of a valued friend. Willson serves as vice president and director of research and development of Texas Industries, a post he has held since the company was organized in 1950. He has played a major role in developing the use of lightweight structural concrete for building construction and is the author of many papers on the subject.
Participating in the surprise ceremony were Willson's wife Lois and long-standing friends Jim Piper of San Antonio Portland Cement Co. and co-worker George Meihaus, who recounted some of the high points of their honored guest's career. Brother Meredith Willson followed via a taped recording, telling guests those things that only a brother would know.
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