Masonry Magazine August 1984 Page. 18
THE ECONOMY'S PACE will be a bit faster in the months ahead,
but not much. That's the consensus of economists in Washington.
The expansion will continue, but at a slower rate than in the
first half of this year. The experts are looking for real growth
of 3% to 4% in the current quarter, and in the final three months.
That's down from the 7%% annual rate of the first six months.
A FEW ANALYSTS ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC, but they are in the
minority. They see the economy continuing to boom, with growth
of 5% or more. But most economists are concerned about the impact
of high interest rates, the strong dollar, and the huge trade deficit.
They fear that these factors will combine to slow down the economy.
Some even worry about a recession in 1985, but most do not. They
blame the worsening on the large deficits. Net, the forecast of less
trouble has the most backers now.
THE ECONOMY'S SLOW-DOWN could offset a big part of the
down-payment on cutting the budget deficit that Congress has just
worked out so painfully. For one thing, more sluggish growth would
mean smaller increases in revenue. For another thing, government
disbursements for unemployment compensation, and for food stamps,
for Medicaid, etc., would increase very substantially. Deficits could
still continue in the area of $170 to $200 billion, unless there are
bigger spending cuts and tax hikes in 1985 after the elections.
WAGE INCREASES WILL STAY MODERATE the rest of this year and
in 1985. Labor specialists in Washington cite four reasons for the
guarded optimism:
* Unemployment is still high, despite the big cuts made in the
past three years; 8% million are still out of work.
* Competition from abroad, bolstered by the strong dollar, forces
U.S. business to be tougher in resisting unions.
* Deregulation has brought in new, non-union competitors.
* Erosion of unions' power makes it harder to achieve new
concessions, let alone to recoup give-backs of the past.
SO A RETURN TO JUMPS like the 10% of three years ago isn't
likely. Wage hikes will be bigger, though, than the 4%% rate of the
first quarter. Unions will have some clout in those industries at
capacity such as paper. (Don't look for new patterns from coal,
autos, or the railroads this year.) Most analysts doubt that average
increases will exceed 6% in the next year.
EMPLOYERS CAN AGAIN TALK to workers about their union
preferences as a result of a recent policy shift by the National
Labor Relations Board. Since 1980, such communication has been
a no-no .. an unfair labor practice. And it still can be, but only if
the employer implies threats or coercion. Sounding-out by asking
questions is permissible under the new rule, though. Reagan
appointees say that this is only another redressing of the balance
that had swung too far labor's way, and against employers, in
recent years.
The change could have the effect of making it easier for
employers to counter the unions' pitches to employees.
NOTE THE BIG CHANGES in private pension plans in a law just
passed. They will affect almost every company currently doing
business. The bill lowers the age at which a worker can be kept
out of a plan from 25 to 21; the law also reduces the age at which
his vesting must begin from 22 to 18. Also, a change in the
break-in-service rule protects past service till a gap adds up to
five consecutive years. It allows a year's maternity leave, too.
The law makes these additional changes:
* Requires survivor benefits unless worker and spouse waive.
* Lets states treat pensions as joint property in divorces.
* Raises the cash-out level at which a plan may pay benefits
without a participant's consent from the $1,750 to $3,500.
PROPOSALS TO STRENGTHEN federal pension insurance are in
the works. The White House is trying to make it tougher for any
company to dump plans that are underfunded on the weakened
Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation. The pending measure would:
* Raise premiums paid by firms to $7 from $2.60 per worker.
* Require employers to prove they'd have to shut down if not
allowed to drop a plan and invoke pension insurance.
* Permit liens on company assets if a plan is terminated.
* Hold a company responsible if an underfunded plan is sold or
transferred, either to a subsidiary or another company.
Hopefully, the bill would police the 2% of firms to blame for the
$530 million loss the pension agency recently ran.
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HELP in shopping for health care would
be provided to corporations and unions under a bipartisan proposal
made on Capitol Hill. The aim is to keep the spiraling costs of
medical-care as low as possible. The Department of Health and
Human Services would study and interpret data to let "buyers"
evaluate information on price services and on quality. At present,
cost of a single operation can vary 200% at different hospitals.
The American Medical Association opposes the idea on the
grounds that it is unnecessary and a waste of tax money. But
labor and employer groups are joined in backing it.
35th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & SHOW
MCAA
MARCH 7-12, 1985
LAS VEGAS HILTON
VEGAS
18 MASONRY-JULY/AUGUST, 1984