Masonry Magazine February 1985 Page. 45
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CONFLICT... CONFUSION... AND SOME GENUINE GAINS those are the keynotes that will dominate the new Ninety-ninth Congress that convened on January 3. Precisely what will be achieved, though, is hard to pinpoint at this time-a good deal harder to predict this year than in almost any of recent memory. For one thing, the big problems ahead seem insolvable at this early date-slashing the enormous budget deficit that looms and reforming the Tax Code.
But there is also a yawning gap between the approach the President wants to follow on the leading issues and that of the Democratic-run House. So watch for fireworks-but look for some progress, too, after the smoke has cleared.
THE PRESIDENT HAS BEEN TRYING to set the agenda, par for the course. In fact, in this modern age of complexity, he inevitably must lead the way. Thus, Reagan and his White House team have been dominating the headlines-getting their proposals before the public, trying to build a head of steam. Administration leaders know they have only a short "window of opportunity"-maybe only six or eight months to generate the momentum needed for success.
They must move quickly to capitalize on the mandate they feel they won in the landslide last November. If they do not achieve their goals in 1985, then concerns about the 1986 elections especially the Senate will limit action.
BUT RONALD REAGAN FACES a tough road even this year, and not only from the Democrats, some of whom are sympathetic to some of his objectives. There has been a clear shift from right to center in the GOP in the Senate, a result of the loss of two seats in November and more moderate leadership. What is more, the special-interest groups are rallying-as rarely before to defend the many programs and tax benefits they have long been enjoying. Not the least of these are numerous, important, pro-Reagan business groups.
The Democrats will be pushing hard for their own agenda, as well. They are reassessing their future what they stand for and should offer to the public. It's a process that calls for a responsible reaction to what Reagan puts forth. There won't be flat opposition to the tax-reform plan Reagan backs-but it won't be bought as is, either.
IT'S TOO EARLY TO SAY that nothing worthwhile can come from Congress in 1985. To be sure, Reagan won't have things all his own way-as in 1981; he doesn't have enough conservative House Democrats with him to run things. But neither will the opposition-Democrats and special interests-prevail. So there will be compromises ... but with real substance... all along the way.
THE OVER-RIDING ISSUE IN 1985 will be trimming the budget deficit-there is no reason for doubt about that. Almost everything Congress does will be governed by the universally recognized need to shrink the red ink that poses such a danger to economic stability. The need will affect what is done about farm aid urban problems... veterans benefits-all spending.
The aim is to slash the deficit to $100 billion by 1988, reducing Treasury borrowing, getting interest rates down and boosting business. But precisely how do you do it?
REAGAN WANTS TO CUT the red ink without raising taxes, over-all, to make good on the promise that was such a critical element of his campaign. But he worr't be able to ... not if he wants to achieve substantial progress. And he likely won't be able to keep a tax reform package "revenue neutral."
He deeply believes that with some hefty spending cuts the economy can be counted on to grow its way out of the red ink on a surge of rapidly expanding revenue receipts.
BUT MANY ON CAPITOL HILL don't accept this-Republicans or Democrats. The deficit due for the coming year will simply be too big: $210 billion. And the spending-revenue gaps promise to be even larger in years after that. Certainly, Reagan's theory offers little hope for working out during 1985. The President would have to enjoy real, after-inflation growth exceeding 4% to even begin to get the revenue needed... and that is clearly not in sight. (Some officials fear a recesion... which would make the deficits bigger.)
THE WHITE HOUSE APPEARS TO FEEL that confrontation with opponents is the best way to get action along the lines Reagan and his allies want. Laying out a strong program, then challenging Congress to pass it, is meant to dramatize the deficit issue and build support behind Reagan's proposals.
LET'S LOOK NOW AT THE FATE of certain of Reagan's specific proposals, to see how many will get through and in what form they will finally pass.
FIRST DEFENSE SPENDING, one of the biggest sectors in the budget. Sec'y Weinberger wants $334 billion for the fiscal year starting October 1, but says he'll take $8 billion less. Lawmakers on both sides won't buy it. They won't accept slashes in domestic spending if defense isn't also pared. Arms expenditure requests will have to be reduced by at least $12 billion.
MEDICARE COSTS WILL BE PARED, though Social Security pensions won't. One way the White House likes: