Masonry Magazine August 1985 Page. 12
WASHINGTON WIRE
Tax collections would fall short-at least moderately.
ECONOMISTS ESTIMATE that the deficit could rise by up to $25 billion for each percentage-point shortfall in economic growth from those estimates on which all budget projections were based by President Reagan in January. Thus, a shortfall of one point-plus in the economic growth rate looming now could hike red ink $30 billion... offsetting a big chunk of Congress's cuts.
A SLOWER ECONOMY could take some starch from the push for tax reform. Despite hopes that the Reagan package would be revenue neutral, it is bound to cost the Treasury a lot of income the way things are trending anyway. For example, high income-tax states, which lose the most by the reform plan, now view this change as favoring the Sun Belt economically at their expense. Why? As business and the middle-classes in such states see after-tax income drop, pressure to migrate or locate new enterprises elsewhere may intensify. Their large Congressional delegations won't sit by and allow this to happen.
Business, faced with depreciation changes which may cost $60 billion in three years as the Treasury "recaptures" accelerated write-offs, is mobilizing to fight this one.
EVEN A PHASE-IN over a number of years would cost a lot of revenue-more than anyone wants to forego, given the already higher deficit prospect. This is why the talk of new tax increases keeps popping up, more and more. But Reagan is still dead-set against any, and Congress would not go for it, either-not while he can veto action and make higher tax-backers look bad.
But if no one wants to cut taxes or let the deficit grow, there is surely no room for revenue loss from tax reform. This is why so many on Capitol Hill see no bill in 1985.
CONGRESS MAY TAKE THE BIT in its teeth and vote protectionist laws this year, overriding White House objections. Pressure for action has been building as lawmakers see ever more jobs leaving their districts for other countries. Even legislators who back free trade find the push irresistible. One key Congressman seems about ready to jump on the protectionist bandwagon. He is Rep. Dan Rostenkowski, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, which has jurisdiction over trade matters. Up to now, he has held the line. But, lately, he has been warning the Reagan Administration to take some steps to stem the import flood. Or else he will unbottle some restrictive bills.
THE RATE OF INFLATION is likely to slow a little further, over-all, during the next year or so. Government and private experts agree on that. Prices of some important items are softening-oil, wheat, other commodities. And the average wage increase is holding steady, with no speed-up in sight.
The underlying inflation rate could, conceivably, slip below 1984's 4% this year, down to 3.5% and even with a little bit of luck to a rate that is as low as 32%.
12 MASONRY-JULY/AUGUST, 1985
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