Masonry Magazine August 1989 Page. 14
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WASHINGTON WIRE
continued from page 13
shifted to an easier monetary policy during early June, declaring success in its effort to moderate the expansion's exuberance. It was a very small action, lowering a key rate by only a quarter of a point. But it's now clear that the central bank is embarked on a new policy course. The Fed can be counted on to follow its initial move with additional steps. Rarely in history has the Fed failed to follow up after a key turning-point.
Policy moves tend to be cumulative, moving on in established directions. The soft economic statistics that are likely to keep coming along will make further easing actions necessary.
THE MONETARY AUTHORITIES WILL WELCOME AN OPPORTUNITY to ease further. Fragilities present in the financial system would be helped by lower rates. They would relieve pressures on hard-pressed savings and loan associations, heavily leveraged take-over companies and less-developed countries as well. Still lower rates will also deflect pressures propelling the dollar upward. Too high a dollar risks damaging export growth, a key to renewed expansion. Exporters would face stiffer competition as their product prices go higher.
PINPOINTING THE EXTENT OF THE INTEREST-RATE DROP will be difficult. Much will depend on the tone of the incoming business and price statistics: How soft will the economy's much-wanted soft landing really turn out to be? The overhanging threat of inflation will tend to keep the easing moderate. With little danger of recession now, there is no need for aggressive ease.
The bank's prime lending rate to their biggest customers may go as low as 10%. Longer-term rates could decline below 8%.
A CUT IN THE CAPITAL-GAINS TAXES ISN'T GOING TO BE ENACTED this year. House Ways and Means Chairman Rostenkowski has withdrawn his earlier support, citing stronger-than-expected resistance from key Democrats on the committee. The chairman floated the idea of such a cut coupled with certain tax breaks for the poor such as the earned income credit and a credit for child care. President Bush will continue to push for a rate reduction-from 33% to 15%, but he needs the support of Democrats-especially Rostenkowski-to pass it.
The Democrats say Bush's plan was a larger boon to the wealthy than they could support and would mean lost revenue long-term.
THE WHITE HOUSE IS CONSIDERING A NEW TYPE of Individual Retirement Account. Contributions would not be immediately deductible from income tax. Instead, tax advantages would come on retirement as IRA money is withdrawn. Both the principal and accrued earnings would be exempt from income levies. Today, earnings aren't taxed immediately, just when withdrawn on retirement.
The idea is to use the Tax Code to encourage personal saving, but without boosting the budget deficit over the short term.
A BIG BATTLE IS SHAPING UP OVER THE PRESIDENT'S clean-air proposals. All sides hailed Bush for breaking the eight-year impasse on air pollution. The Reagan Administration had essentially fought antipollution requirements. The Bush proposal seeks to eliminate ex-continued on page 40
14 MASONRY-JULY/AUGUST, 1989