Masonry Magazine June 1969 Page. 13
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U.S. OFFICIALS ARE PREDICTING A MAJOR BREAK TOWARD PEACE in Viet Nam by fall.. or sooner. They say that Nixon means to extricate this country...to bring the boys home. Such a development would have a vital influence on the trend of the economy, short run and long. Certainly, it would quickly affect psychology and business decisions and the intensity of inflationary pressure. This should be kept in mind amid all the rumors and negotiations.
Nixon wants the best deal he can make with the other side. He is prepared to make much greater concessions than he has already offered to be free to deal with pressing domestic problems and to keep his own political stock from slumping.
The road to peace won't be smooth. Nixon will have plenty of trouble working out acceptable terms of settlement with the current regime in South Viet Nam let alone Hanoi.
-m.coo-
THE PRESIDENT IS READY TO NEGOTIATE ON ALMOST ANY POINT-that's the word he was trying to pass in his mid-May speech on the war and his policy. Very little is non-negotiable only the South's right to pick its leaders. The U.S. is ready to leave- simultaneously, not just after Hanoi pulls out. We'll accept a coalition government in Saigon-maybe even before elections-though there will be elaborate efforts to sugar-coat this very bitter pill.
First withdrawals of American troops are already being blue-printed. The announcement may be only a question of weeks away. Actual reductions in force could begin by the fall.
Lack of agreement at Paris won't stop the withdrawals. If the enemy will not de-escalate, Nixon will take the lead in lowering the intensity of the war-even if this means using a supposed gain in Saigon's fighting ability as an excuse.
LIMITED TROOP WITHDRAWALS IMPLY ONLY GRADUAL DROPS in arms spending-not sudden release of the $30 billion a year war fund to domestic programs. That's what a White House task force recently reported to President Nixon. (Analysts in the previous Administration had come to the same conclusion.) Note that defense planners will want some of the money that is freed. They will be pushing for new weapons. And they will get some of what they ask.
To be sure, government revenues will be increasing, as the growth of the economy lifts incomes and profits and tax collections. But this won't reinforce savings in war costs enough to pay for all those backlogged programs. or to meet all the needs for rebuilding the cities and ending poverty. So the President must set priorities. Government officials say that he already has and they go something like these:
-Fighting inflation is high on the list. This means that there is no return to deficit spending on the horizon.
-Cuts in taxes will be enacted quickly. The 10% surtax is unpopular. Congress will rush to kill it once peace comes.
-Federal spending for civilian-type programs will keep on rising. But the increases allotted will be kept limited.
PEACE IN VIET NAM IS NOT GOING TO BRING A RECESSION automatically-most economists agree on that. There may be a little slack next year -just temporarily as war orders shrink some before those ghetto and anti-poverty programs expand. But the slowing won't be anything to worry about. Indeed, the current anti-inflationary program and that tight money, especially pose more of a danger. But even the credit squeeze need not mean a slump.
On the other hand, don't count on a new boom, sparked by a spurt in consumer and business spending. Any surge may be slow in developing. President Nixon will try to keep the Budget in surplus- and money will stay relatively tight-until it is clear inflation has really begun to slacken. Continued Budget and monetary restraint can block any boom.
Control of U.S. spending will be the big bonus from peace. War zooms outlays. There's no quibbling over Pentagon needs. The Budget rockets into the red. With peace, expenditure goals can be met, deficits stopped, and inflation avoided.