Masonry Magazine June 1969 Page. 14
Washington Wire
PATIENCE IS STILL THE WATCHWORD THAT ECONOMISTS in government and in industry advise in appraising the outlook for a cooling in business activity. The analysts see increasing signs of a slowdown. But the evidence remains tenuous, skimpy, inconclusive. It centers in recent figures on employment, inventories, and retail sales. But, so far, the signals are little more than straws in the wind, subject to reversal, and needing further confirmation.
The experts think that you will see a clearer trend by the time the June statistics are in hand. Maybe that is when the usual lags before brakes take hold will come to an end.
IF THE SLOWING DOES APPEAR AS EXPECTED, the credit pinch will ease a little partly of its own accord, as demand for credit starts to decline, partly because the Federal Reserve will let the money supply expand again. Interest rates-now close to recent peaks-could decline for all borrowers. Lending can turn up again, but only moderately for some time in the future.
But if the economy keeps roaring along...if those straws in the wind prove misleading...officials will turn the screws a little further. Money will get even tighter. Interest rates would edge up even higher, to peaks for this century.
WAGE DEMANDS ARE GOING TO STAY LARGE through the rest of this year, at least. Union wage negotiators will be trying to catch up with those big price increases of recent months. Leaders are under intense rank-and-file pressure to bring home fat pay gains. Members insist that they need large hikes to keep up with the zooming cost of living. Actually, inflation has all but neutralized wage increases so far this year. It is doubtful that the slowing in the price rise will be big enough to weaken the union push.
The drive for higher wages makes a shrinkage in corporate profit margins seem all the more likely. An early response to the business slowdown the government seeks is likely to show up in a lessened industry ability to pass costs hikes along to the consumer in the form of higher retail prices.
CONGRESS WOULD LIKE TO EASE PRESENT RESTRICTIONS on East-West trade. Several Senators are pressing this, and getting support from big companies. The aim is to get a share of the export trade now going to America's allies. One bill would end the licensing requirements on all non-military products. Eastern nations would be allowed to buy here goods available in West Europe.
There is opposition to easing from such formidable powers as Senate Republican Leader Dirksen. He doesn't like the idea of trading with the enemy.
Nixon supports Dirksen for now, to use easing as a bargaining chip with Russia later. Backers don't know whether easing can pass over Nixon's no.
MANDATORY QUOTAS ON TEXTILE IMPORTS ARE THE SUBJECT of a hot debate that's now raging within the Nixon Administration. The outcome of the fight could affect the course of other protectionist bills covering other products. Most officials would prefer to retain a free-trade policy. But the refusal of Japan and other nations to put voluntary limits on imports of synethetics could trigger Congress' wrath. The President may not be able to block curbs.
Some Congressmen would try to tack amendments to a textile-quota bill to extend assistance to constituent industries. Lines from steel to mink-growing have asked for help. But Congress' preoccupation with tax reform and surtax extension means that all quota action must wait till late in the year.
NIXON'S POSTAL PROGRAM IS IN BIG TROUBLE and may not pass in 1969. Most experts feel that basic change is needed in the Post Office Department-including the public corporation to market bonds to pay for mechanization. But a number of Congressmen are very angry with Postmaster General Blount. He has failed to consult them on ending political selection of postmasters. What's more, the powerful postal unions fear a weakening of their influence.
The 7e rate on first-class mail that Nixon wants faces its share of troubles, too. Congress is reluctant to vote it because the voters don't want it. And now Blount has given them the desired excuse to reject the whole Nixon package.
STUDENT RADICALS MAY MOVE IN ON U.S. INDUSTRIAL PLANTS this summer, but officials in Washington believe that the dangers have been exaggerated. They are not ignoring all those plans for forming an alliance with workers-plans for "be-ins", for plant shut-downs, for disruptions in production. Many of the campus revolutionaries do intend to branch out from college.
Some groups have drawn plans for infiltrating plants in the role of summer workers. The word is to cut hair...dress neatly...don't do too well on placement tests lest a desk job result. Once on the plant floor, the agitating begins.
Here's why there are doubts at the luck students will have:
-The students are outsiders not a part of the community.
-The workers are not sympathetic in a great many cases. Most are doing well these days, despite inroads of inflation.
-Student backing of black workers promotes white backlash.
-Unions resent attacks on their leaders from the radicals.
masonry • June, 1969