Masonry Magazine April 1971 Page. 35
Washington Wire
The President will allow the Budget deficit to go up only as a last resort. But a growing group of business and government economists feels Nixon will have to move soon. They think new tax relief is the only way to get the economy back on track.
NO ALUMINUM STRIKE IS EXPECTED when labor contracts expire May 31. The major producers are becoming resigned to granting a hefty wage package. It is likely to be modeled on the agreement in cans-30% over three years. The unions will be pushing hard. Except for 1970, profits have been good. And aluminum buyers are doing less strike-hedge stock-piling than in 1968.
But short walkouts in copper and steel are possibilities, later this year. The union will be demanding a settlement at least matching the can package. There are bitter feelings remaining as an aftermath of copper's 1968 strike. The mills will match the can deal; the union can't expect to win more.
PRODUCT WARRANTY LEGISLATION WILL BE VOTED by Congress this year. The President and consumer groups are agreed on the need for tighter laws. The only question remaining is what form the legislation will finally take. Two pending measures differ in their requirements for labeling of warranties. One sponsored by the Administration-merely demands a "warranty" headline. The other requires firms to distinguish between full and partial warranties.
Clear and complete disclosure of warranty conditions is the objective. Autos, appliances and almost all other consumer products would be covered. Tough enforcement is expected from the Federal Trade Commission, once the law is passed.
THE COMMERCE DEPARTMENT IS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT GAINS for most industries, during the rest of 1971 as well as in the years beyond. A recent round-up sees bright prospects for 192 lines this year-and only 14 showing declines. Looking ahead to 1970 and 1980, Commerce projects very big gains generally. The forecasts were carefully put together, industry by industry, by experts in the Department's various specialized divisions and by its economists.
Here's what is foreseen for makers of durable goods:
* Household consumer durables will show a 6% gain in shipments in 1971. The $12.9 billion expected would be only slightly below 1969's fine record. Commerce projects sales of $15.7 billion in 1975 and a level of $19.2 billion a decade hence.
* Car sales are expected to recover in 1971 after a sluggish 1970. Dealers will sell 9.5 to 9.8 million cars, including imports. Autos produced could rise to 9.2 million in 1975 and 10.6 million by 1980, from the 8.3 billion due in 1970.
* Primary metals production will make small to moderate gains this year. Sales of these metals will increase by 2% to 8%.
THE METALWORKING MACHINERY FIELD WILL SHOW mixed trends this year. Machine-tool shipments are likely to see an increase of 3% over last year. In 1975, machine-tool sales will be 7%% higher and be up 64% more in 1980. Tool and die shop deliveries will decrease by some 10% this year from 1970.
Aerospace industry volume will shrink some in the next few years. Manufacturers of commercial airplanes won't get back to expansion until 1975. Space and missile companies are not likely to experience gains until 1972. This year, total aerospace industry shipments will decline 17% from 1970.
SOFT-GOODS MANUFACTURERS WILL ALSO BE SEEING some divergent trends. The chemical industry can expect the same fast growth it saw in the 1960s, its shipments are likely to go up by about 7% this year to $53½ billion. (A 6%-a-year gain is likely for the 1970s, with 1980 sales at $90 billion.) Apparel manufacturers will probably see little improvement in years to come; only if the rate of imports can be slowed will the outlook turn favorable. Dollar volume of food products will rise this year-mostly price increases; a gain of 5% from 1970 is forecast, bringing shipments to about $92 billion.
Inflation will account for much of nonmanufacturing gains:
* Retail sales in 1971 will hit $390 million, 7% over 70.
* Wholesale trade will make solid gains after a draggy 1970.
* New construction will enjoy a big 21% gain in 1971, led by a brisk upturn in home-building, plus strength in utilities.
* The transportation field should begin showing improvement during 1971. A 3% increase is seen in total passenger miles for the scheduled airlines, railroads, and bus companies.
THE PERSONAL CARE FIELDS CAN EXPECT A 5% GAIN in 1971, to $15 billion. (These include barber, beauty, cleaning and repair, and funeral services.) Spending for health and medical services will increase 10% this year, to $78 billion. Then, in the 1970s, there will be similar huge gains each year. Conservative estimates suggest that outlays will rise at an 8% annual rate, to $110 billion in 1975 and $156 billion in 1980... if not a good deal more.
NOTE THE NEW SCHEDULE OF HOLIDAYS THAT WILL GO INTO EFFECT in 1971. A law passed in 1968 prescribes that four legal holidays should be shifted to a Monday, regardless of the day on which the dates would otherwise fall. The holidays: Washington's Birthday, Memorial, Veterans and Columbus Days. So now there will be at least five three-day weekends, counting Labor Day. New Years, Christmas, Thanksgiving and Independence Day dates won't change.
Legally, the law applies only to Washington, D. С. and Federal government workers. But 35 states have adopted holiday plans that coincide with the government's. Some 10 other states are going along with the new schedule in a limited fashion.
masonry
April, 1971
35