Masonry Magazine December 2001 Page. 39
masonry news
HOUSING AND THE ECONOMY IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE SEPTEMBER 11th ATTACK ON AMERICA
by David F. Sewers, Chief Economist, National Association of Home Builders
Economic information received since October 5, along with the government's pronouncements regarding the likelihood of additional terrorist attacks and the very real anthrax scare, has complicated the short-term economic outlook a bit further. Total retail and food-service sales fell sharply in September (by 2.4 percent) and chain-store sales continued to deteriorate in early October. It's true that consumer sentiment perked up a bit in early October (University of Michigan series) and that initial claims for unemployment insurance receded in the past week, but both series still signal economic weakness. It's also true that auto sales have improved in response to generous financing incentives by the manufacturers (including zero interest rate loans) but much of this activity presumably has been borrowed from the near future. The beleaguered airline industry is reporting declines in passenger miles that are not as steep as recently feared, but the shortfalls still are quite dramatic.
With respect to the housing sector, the Mortgage Bankers Association's index of mortgage applications for home purchases fell sharply in the first week of October, and further processing of NAHB's early-October survey of home builders (mentioned last week) has further documented significant falloffs in buyer traffic and home sales since September 11, as well as a modest upshift in contract cancellations and a cutback in speculative building. It's also clear that NAHB's monthly Housing Market Index for October (to be released October 16) will show a significant decline, on the heels of a sizable setback in September (before the attacks). These various developments are pretty much in line with our expectations. NAHB's forecasts have been revised slightly to reflect information received since September 28. The new forecasts (dated October 15) still contain a two-quarter recession (the third and fourth quarters of this year), but it's now a bit deeper and the unemployment rate now gravitates a bit higher early next year (hitting 5.9 percent in the second quarter). The forecast now also incorporates two more monetary easing moves by the Federal Reserve before the end of this year quarter-point cuts at the November 6 and December 11 FOMC meetings. We're assuming that the slightly weaker economy and the lower interest rate pattern will have roughly offsetting effects on the housing sector, and our housing forecasts are still the same as on September 28.
About NAHB: The National Association of Home Builders is a Washington-based trade association representing more than 205, 000 members involved in home building, remodeling, multifamily construction, property management, subcontracting, design, housing finance, building product manufacturing and other aspects of residential and light commercial construction. Known as "the voice of the housing industry, "NAHB is affiliated with more than 800 state and local home builders associations around the country. NAHB 's budder members will construct about 80 percent of the more than 1.5 million new housing units projected for 2001. During a typical year, residential construction accounts for about five cents of every dollar spent in the US economy, making home building one of the largest and most influential industries in the country
ANNOUNCEMENTS
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR APPOINTED
Joe Neussendorfer
The Mason Contractors Association (MCA), Livonia, announced that it has appointed Joe Neussendorfer as its Executive Director. The seasoned construction association executive, with nearly 30 years of service to non-profit organizations in Southeastern Michigan, is a member of the American Society of Association Executives and the Michigan Society of Association Executives. Neussendorfer brings a comprehensive range of skills to his new responsibilities that includes construction association management, customer relationship management, marketing/communications product creation, governmental and legislative affairs programming, industry relations problem solving, building industry economic forecasting, and new membership development fundraising activities.
In addition to his association involvement, he is a member of the Engineering Society of Detroit, Public Relations Society of America, Construction Forum of the American Bar Association, and a Life Member of the Economic Club of Detroit. His professional credentials include: licensed builder, certified home inspector, member of the Construction Specifications Institute, and member of the American Society of Professional Estimators.
Neussendorfer resides in Pontiac, Michigan where he is a volunteer member of the Pontiac City Zoning Board and the Builders Appeals Board. The Mason Contractors Association, established in Detroit in 1908, is the oldest and largest construction association exclusively serving the masonry contracting industry in Southeastern Michigan.
MASONRY DECEMBER, 2001 39